Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Nicole Miller
Nicole Miller

Elara is a passionate storyteller and avid traveler who weaves narratives from diverse cultures and personal journeys.

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